Introduction

The 2025 NCAAF season is upon us, and with it comes the much-anticipated release of the Football Power Index (FPI) rankings. These rankings, provided by ESPN, offer a comprehensive look at each team's strength relative to an average FBS squad. They take into account offense, defense, and special teams, providing a detailed forecast for every team's record, their chances of winning a conference title, and their probability to make the expanded 12-team playoff and win the national championship.

Undervalued Teams

Arizona State Sun Devils

Paolo Uggetti believes that the Sun Devils are slightly undervalued at No. 24. Despite losing star running back Cam Skattebo to the NFL draft, they return a strong core of players, including quarterback Sam Leavitt, who could be a Heisman contender, and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson. Head coach Kenny Dillingham has shown he can lead the team to success, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them make another playoff run.

Clemson Tigers

Mark Schlabach argues that Clemson is one of the best teams in the FBS and should be ranked higher than No. 11. With quarterback Cade Klubnik, who is considered one of the most polished passers in the sport, and the best defensive line in the FBS, the Tigers are poised for a strong season.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Bill Connelly points out that Iowa, ranked No. 39, is undervalued. Despite some defensive losses, the Hawkeyes are expected to have a top-10 or top-15 defense. The offense has also improved, making Iowa a top-25-level team.

Indiana Hoosiers

Jake Trotter highlights Indiana, which returns several key players from last year's squad, including All-Big Ten receiver Elijah Sarratt. With no Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule, Indiana could once again be in playoff contention.

Overvalued Teams

Texas A&M Aggies

Jake Trotter is skeptical of Texas A&M being ranked No. 8. Despite having talent, the Aggies have consistently failed to meet expectations. Last year's rankings in offensive and defensive EPA do not suggest a top-10 team.

Texas Longhorns

Bill Connelly questions whether Texas, ranked No. 1, is overvalued. The Longhorns lost several key players, and their ranking hinges on quarterback Arch Manning living up to his hype.

Miami Hurricanes

Paolo Uggetti is doubtful about Miami being ranked No. 9. While they have a solid core of players, the Hurricanes' success depends heavily on quarterback Carson Beck, who is coming off surgery.

Tennessee Volunteers

Mark Schlabach is not convinced that Tennessee, ranked No. 10, is a top-25 team. The Volunteers face challenges on offense and have a new quarterback in Joey Aguilar.

Potential Surprises

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Jake Trotter believes Texas Tech, outside the FPI top 25, could make a run. With a strong transfer portal class and quarterback Behren Morton, the Red Raiders could threaten for a conference title and playoff berth.

TCU Horned Frogs and Baylor Bears

Bill Connelly is intrigued by TCU and Baylor, both of which finished the season strong. With stellar quarterbacks and active transfer portal strategies, these teams could be serious Big 12 contenders.

Washington Huskies

Paolo Uggetti sees potential in Washington, ranked No. 27. With a top-25 recruiting class and key defensive reinforcements, the Huskies could surprise in the Big 12.

Conclusion

The 2025 NCAAF FPI rankings provide a fascinating glimpse into the upcoming season. While some teams may be overvalued or undervalued, the true test will come on the field. As always, the unpredictability of college football is what makes it so exciting.