2025 NCAAF Preseason Betting Guide: Top 25 Teams and Expert Picks

As the 2025 college football season approaches, the betting market is already heating up. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET, and season win totals and futures are shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP Top 25 poll has a unique story, whether it's a rebuild, a reload, or a revenge tour. Here’s a breakdown of the best bets for each team in the Top 25, including win totals, long shots, and Week 1 matchups.

No. 1 Texas Longhorns

The Bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220) Texas is the favorite to win the national championship, but this feels more like hype than substance. With a young roster and tough road games at Ohio State and Georgia, the Longhorns have little margin for error. A 10-2 record seems more likely, making the bet on Texas missing the playoffs a smart choice.

No. 2 Penn State Nittany Lions

The Bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120) Penn State is built for another deep playoff run. With Drew Allar entering his third season as the starter and a veteran core, the Nittany Lions are ready to take a leap. Trusting James Franklin with this experienced roster is a solid bet.

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes

The Bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus. Ohio State’s defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. The Buckeyes rarely lose at home, making this a strong bet.

No. 4 Clemson Tigers

The Bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145) Clemson has continuity and talent aligned on offense, with Cade Klubnik poised to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country. A friendly schedule and a trio of dangerous receivers make the Tigers a team to watch in 2025.

No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs

The Bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180) Despite questions at quarterback and on the offensive line, Georgia is stacked with recruiting talent and depth. With key games at home, 10 wins feels like the Bulldogs’ floor.

No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas Notre Dame’s defense is loaded with size, length, and pass-rushing upside. With a stable path to more wins, the Irish are a strong bet against a Texas team still retooling.

No. 7 Oregon Ducks

The Bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210) Dante Moore’s struggles with turnovers and consistency make Oregon a risky bet. Without key weapon Tez Johnson, the Ducks could take a step back.

No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide

The Bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125) Alabama’s defense isn’t what it used to be, and a tough road schedule could expose their vulnerabilities. A 10-2 record might not be enough for a playoff spot.

No. 9 LSU Tigers

The Bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135) LSU’s brutal schedule and roster concerns make nine wins a tall ask. With an offensive line in transition and a new receiving corps, the Tigers could struggle.

No. 10 Miami Hurricanes

The Bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami Notre Dame’s loaded defense can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. With a new quarterback and defensive coaching staff, the Hurricanes are at a disadvantage.

No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils

The Bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135) Losing Cam Skattebo lowers the Sun Devils’ floor. Without their most reliable weapon, close games become harder to close.

No. 12 Illinois Fighting Illini

The Bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130) Illinois’ tough schedule and loss of key players make under eight wins a valuable bet.

No. 13 South Carolina Gamecocks

The Bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105) LaNorris Sellers’ dual-threat ability gives the Gamecocks a high ceiling. With momentum and a clear offensive identity, South Carolina is poised for a winning season.

No. 14 Michigan Wolverines

The Bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850) Michigan’s deep pass rush and secondary, combined with a favorable schedule, make them a strong contender for the Big Ten title.

No. 15 Florida Gators

The Bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135) Florida’s brutal schedule and durability concerns in the secondary make a 6-6 season a real possibility.

No. 16 SMU Mustangs

The Bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120) With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. If Jennings cuts down on turnovers, nine wins is within reach.

No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats

The Bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550) Avery Johnson’s leadership and a balanced offense make the Wildcats a serious contender for the Big 12 title.

No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners

The Bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135) Oklahoma’s brutal schedule and offensive line issues make seven wins a reach.

No. 19 Texas A&M Aggies

The Bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170) The Aggies’ offense has serious upside, and if the defense makes a moderate jump, eight wins should be their floor.

No. 20 Indiana Hoosiers

The Bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115) With continuity, explosive skill talent, and a proven head coach, Indiana is built to sustain success.

No. 21 Ole Miss Rebels

The Bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190) Ole Miss’ inexperienced defense and tough schedule make the playoffs a long shot.

No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones

The Bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5 With both teams returning experienced quarterbacks and defenses starting slow, this neutral-site opener has the ingredients for a high-scoring affair.

No. 23 Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140) Behren Morton’s continuity at quarterback and a strong defensive front make nine wins a realistic goal.

No. 24 Tennessee Volunteers

The Bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105) Tennessee’s disruptive defense and Joey Aguilar’s potential make a 9-3 record within reach.

No. 25 Boise State Broncos

The Bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125) With a soft conference schedule and home games against tough opponents, Boise State is a strong bet to win the Mountain West.